Monday, September 17, 2012

2012: The Year of the Housing Recovery, Update

DataQuick -- "An estimated 41,280 new and resale houses and condos sold in California last month, making it the strongest August since 2006. Last month's sales total was up 4.5% from 39,507 in July, and up 9.4% from 37,734 sales in August 2011."

"The median price paid for a home in California last month was $281,000, the same as the month before and up 12.9% from $249,000 in August 2011. The July and August median was the highest since September 2008, when it was $283,000. August marked the sixth consecutive month in which the state's median sale price rose year-over-year." 

"Of the existing homes sold in August, 20% were properties that had been foreclosed on during the past year. That was down from a revised 21.7% in July and down from 34.3% a year earlier. Last month's figure was the lowest for any month since foreclosure resales made up 18.3% of the resale market in November 2007."

MP: Isn't this exactly what a housing recovery looks like? 

California home sales were the highest in six years for the month of August and up almost 10% from a year ago, the median sales price was the highest in almost four years and up almost 13% from last year, median prices have increased year-over-year for the last six months, and the share of foreclosure sales in August was the lowest in almost five years.  

If this isn't a real housing recovery in California, how would a real recovery be different?    

5 Comments:

At 9/17/2012 2:43 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

"Isn't this exactly what a housing recovery looks like? "

it's hard to tell. this is also what mix shift looks like. simple median prices cannot tell the difference.

i think there is some recovery, but i do not think it is nearly as strong as the median numbers are making it look.

comparing like to like (neighborhood, amenities, size etc) prices seem to be up, but nothing like by double digit amounts.

there have also been a number of false starts since the collapse. this one seems a bit stronger, but it's a bit early yet to be making a definitive call.

that seems to be the position that shiller is taking and i tend to agree.

the (admittedly a bit behind and slow to react) CS index composite 20 was showing sub 1% yoy growth for june.

last july and aug picked up a bit too, but i suspect it's a bit stronger this time. that said, i think we are looking at 2-3% gains, not the 10%+ getting reported as median numbers which are mistaking mix shift with same house appreciation.

 
At 9/17/2012 2:53 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

As something of a supplemental, this is a chart of annual housing starts in the Census' West Region. The West Region consists of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, California, Alaska, and Hawaii.

As you can plainly see on the chart, Starts remain well below the pre-recession peak, but the uptick in activity over the recent months is by far the strongest in a long time (on an annual growth basis, this is about 30% growth. Comparing the same month to last year, it is a 50% growth).

 
At 9/17/2012 6:29 PM, Blogger bart said...

Dataquick weekly sales index and prices

 
At 9/17/2012 9:32 PM, Blogger Aiken_Bob said...

What doesn't make sense is how to account for the near zero interest rate? These statistics reflect the volume and median price - I have to believe if mortgage rate were more typical, i.e. higher, things would remain flat. Maybe it is a chicken and egg question but I believe it is a major factor.

 
At 9/17/2012 9:32 PM, Blogger Aiken_Bob said...

What doesn't make sense is how to account for the near zero interest rate? These statistics reflect the volume and median price - I have to believe if mortgage rate were more typical, i.e. higher, things would remain flat. Maybe it is a chicken and egg question but I believe it is a major factor.

 

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